PUBLICATIONS

Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=F8qbKq0AAAAJ&hl=it&oi=ao

Research Gate: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Davide-Zaccagnino

Available Preprints

  1. Zaccagnino, D., & Sornette, D. (2026). Physics-Based Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment: A New Paradigm for Earthquake Forecasting. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2603.00570.
  2. Convertito, V., Gammaldi, S., Zaccagnino, D., Godano, C., & De Matteis, R. (2025). Rheological control on earthquake source kinematics and dynamics at the Hengill geothermal field, Earth ArXiV, https://doi.org/10.31223/X50J0X
  3. Zaccagnino, D. (2025). Supercritical dynamics governs extreme seismic hazard, 04 September 2025, available at Research Square https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7340286/v1
  4. Di Naccio, D., Zaccagnino, D., & Carafa, M. M. C. (2025). Bayesian Estimation of Paleoearthquake Magnitudes in the Central Apennines, Earth ArXiV.
  5. Zaccagnino, D. , Doglioni, C., B-Value Spatial Variability Controlled by Fractal Properties of Faulting in Crustal Volumes, Available at SSRN 5109305.

Books
Emergent collective dynamics in fault systems – Bridging crustal mechanics and statistical seismology, Zaccagnino, D., Cambridge Scholars Publishing (299 pages), ISBN: 978-1-0364-6948-1 – 30/03/2026
Explore the collective physics governing major earthquakes bridging fault mechanics and statistical seismology. This book presents a framework where large events arise not from isolated ruptures but from system-wide preparatory phases within fault networks. The work identifies detectable processes – such as increasing stress sensitivity and peculiar clustering patterns – and reinterprets fundamental seismic laws thorugh the lens of optimization theory. Offering a cohesive perspective that integrates seismotectonics, rock physics, and complex systems, this book provides researchers and graduate students with tangible, physics-based concepts to advance the foundational models for seismic hazard.
Link: https://cambridgescholars.com/product/978-1-0364-6948-1/

Il santo, la strega e l’acchiappalune, Zaccagnino, D. Self-published (266 pages), ISBN: 979-1-2200-7057-7 – 19/08/2020
This book collects great part of the results achieved along ten years of research in the historical archives of Southern Umbria, Italy. It is focused on the history of a small village, Onelli di Cascia, repeatedly hit by large earthquakes in the past two thousand years (99 BC, 1328, 1599, 1702, 1703, 1707, 1730, 1859, 1964, 1979, 1997, and 2016). The work contains memories of the inhabitants as well as rigorous reconstructions of seismic events, their impact on local population, society, economy and culture.

Peer-reviewed publications

  1. Zaccagnino, D. (2026). Short‐Sighted Faults: A New Model for Earthquake Recurrence and Crustal Memory. Terra Nova. doi: 10.1111/ter.70036
  2. Taroni, M., Zaccagnino, D., Spassiani, I., Falcone, G., Petrillo, G., Vitale, G., & Figlioli, A. (2026). b EST—Universal Estimation of the Gutenberg–Richter b Value, with a MATLAB/Python Toolbox. Seismological Research Letters.
  3. Zaccagnino, D. (2026). Scale-dependent earthquake nucleation: Implications for seismicity, tectonics and laboratory experiments. Tectonophysics, 231156.
  4. Zaccagnino, D., Doglioni, C. A statistical approach to foreshocks discrimination in Italy. Natural Hazards 122, 84 (2026). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07830-y
  5. Zaccagnino, D., Cuffaro, M., Ficini, E., & Doglioni, C. (2025). On the plate velocity scaling break. Scientific Reports, 15(1), 44633.
  6. Zaccagnino, D., Stabile, T. A., Akinci, A., Herrero, A., Tan, O., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. (2025). Supershear cascading rupture envelopes: a case study from the 2023 Kahramanmaraş seismic doublet. Frontiers in Earth Science, 13, 1683922.
  7. Zaccagnino, D., Michas, G., Telesca, L., & Vallianatos, F. (2025). Precursory patterns, evolution and physical interpretation of the 2025 Santorini-Amorgos seismic sequence. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 671, 119656.
  8. Barani, S., Taroni, M., Zaccagnino, D., Artale Harris, P., & Petrillo, G. (2025). A physics-informed stochastic model for the long-term correlation of earthquakes. Communications Earth & Environment, 6(1), 674.
  9. Zaccagnino, D., Bruno, O., & Doglioni, C. (2025). Spatial scale dependence of fault physical parameters and its implications for the analysis of earthquake dynamics from the lab to fault systems. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 666, 119481.
  10. Venegas-Aravena, P., & Zaccagnino, D. (2025). Large earthquakes are more predictable than smaller ones. Seismica, 4(1).
  11. Sardeli, E., Michas, G., Pavlou, K., Zaccagnino, D., & Vallianatos, F. (2024). Spatiotemporal properties of the 2020–2021 Petrinja (Croatia) earthquake sequence. Journal of Seismology, 1-22.
  12. Zaccagnino, D., Vallianatos, F., Michas, G., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. (2024). Are foreshocks fore‐shocks? Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 129, e2023JB027337. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JB027337
  13. Zaccagnino, D., Doglioni, C. (2023). Fault dip vs shear stress gradient. Geosystems and Geoenvironment, 100211.
  14. Zaccagnino, D., Telesca, L., Tan, O., Doglioni, C. (2023). Clustering Analysis of Seismicity in the Anatolian Region with Implications for Seismic Hazard. Entropy, 25, https://doi.org/10.3390/e25060835
  15. Nesi, V., Bruno, O., Zaccagnino, D., Mascia, C., & Doglioni, C. (2023). Tidal drag and westward drift of the lithosphere. Geoscience Frontiers, 101623.
  16. Zaccagnino, D., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. (2023). Global versus local clustering of seismicity: Implications with earthquake prediction. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 170, 113419.
  17. Zaccagnino, D., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. (2022). Variable seismic responsiveness to stress perturbations along the shallow section of subduction zones: The role of different slip modes and implications for the stability of fault segments. Frontiers in Earth Science, 10:989697. doi: 10.3389/feart.2022.989697
  18. Zaccagnino, D., & Doglioni, C. (2022). The impact of faulting complexity and type on earthquake rupture dynamics. Communications Earth & Environment, 3(1), 1-10.
  19. Zaccagnino, D., & Doglioni, C. (2022). Earth’s gradients as the engine of plate tectonics and earthquakes. La Rivista del Nuovo Cimento, 1-81.
  20. Zaccagnino, D., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. (2022). Correlation between seismic activity and tidal stress perturbations highlights growing instability within the brittle crust. Scientific Reports, 12(1), 1-14.
  21. Zaccagnino, D., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. (2022). Scaling properties of seismicity and faulting. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 584, 117511.
  22. Zaccagnino, D., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. (2021). Different fault response to stress during the seismic cycle. Applied Sciences, 11(20), 9596.
  23. Zaccagnino, D., Vespe, F., & Doglioni, C. (2020). Tidal modulation of plate motions. Earth-Science Reviews, 205, 103179.

Invited Talks:

  1. Zaccagnino, D., 29/04/2026 “The paradox of predictability: why large earthquakes are more predictable than smaller ones” (ISSI, Bern, Switzerland, solicited by Dr. Dedalo Marchetti)
  2. Zaccagnino, D., 18/09/2025 “Megaquake Dynamics – Modeling the Recurrence of Extreme Seismic Hazard” (CNR-IMAA, Tito Scalo, Potenza, Italy)
  3. Zaccagnino, D., 24/07/2025 “Understanding the Emergence of Large Earthquakes” (DISTAV, University of Genova, Genova, Italy)
  4. Zaccagnino, D., 14/01/2025 “The emergence of collective behaviors in fault systems” (Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale – OGS Udine, Italy)
  5. Zaccagnino, D., 25/11/2024 “The emergence of collective seismic behaviors” (seminar at the INGV, L’Aquila, solicited by Dr. Michele Carafa)
  6. Zaccagnino, D., 14/05/2024 “A theoretical framework for fault-slip styles from aseismic creep to regular earthquakes” (Special ACM Seminar, Division of Engineering and Applied Mathematics, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, US)
  7. Zaccagnino, D., 9/05/2023 “Physical modeling of seismicity and its implications for seismic hazard” (Department of Geophysics and Geothermics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece)
  8. Zaccagnino, D., 23/03/2023 “From physical modeling to seismic precursors” (HydroQuakes: Pre-Seismic Hydrogeochemical Anomalies, Rome, 1st INGV Congress about potential earthquake precursors, 2023)

Oral presentations at conferences:

  1. Zaccagnino*, D., Carafa, M. MC., Doglioni, C. 01/09/2025 “Testing the best modeling techniques for earthquake-related long-term geodetic transients” (IASPEI-IAGA Meeting, Lisbon, Portugal, 2025)
  2. Zaccagnino*, D., Li, J., Sornette, D. 03/09/2025 “Earthquake Triggering Power Extends Below Instrumental Detection Limits” (IASPEI-IAGA Meeting, Lisbon, Portugal, 2025)
  3. Zaccagnino*, D., Li, J., Sornette, D. 10/07/2025 “BEYOND COMPLETENESS – The Persistent Triggering Power of Earthquakes
     at Unobservable Small Magnitudes” (Haicheng International Symposium, Shenyang, China, 2025).
  4. Zaccagnino*, D., Bruno, O., Doglioni, C. 12/2/2025 “Reconciling laboratory, small and large fault frictional properties” (GNGTS Meeting, Bologna, Italy, 2025)
  5. Zaccagnino*, D., Vallianatos, F., Michas, G., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. 25/09/2024 “The narrow path to the discrimination of precursory seismic activity” (XXXIX ESC, Corfu, Greece, 2024)
  6. Zaccagnino*, D., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. 10/06/2024 “Seismic clusters as markers of crustal stability” (Avalanche 2024 Conference, Espoo, Helsinki, Finland, 2024)
  7. Zaccagnino*, D., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. 03/05/2024 “Seismic clusters as markers of crustal stability” (SSA Annual Meeting, Anchorage, Alaska, 2024)
  8. Zaccagnino*, D., Vallianatos, F., Michas, G., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. 19/04/2024 “What do seismic clusters tell us about fault stability?” (EGU Annual Meeting, Vienna, Austria, 2024)
  9. Zaccagnino*, D., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. 18/03/2024 “Foreshocks or swarms? Insights from theory and statistical analysis” (STATSEI13, Shenzhen, China, 2024)
  10. Zaccagnino*, D., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. 15/02/2024 “Do not call them foreshocks” (GNGTS, Ferrara, Italy, 2024)
  11. Zaccagnino*, D., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. 14/07/2023 “New clues for seismic hazard from statistical properties of seismicity, rheology and tectonics” (XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), Berlin, Germany, 2023)
  12. Zaccagnino*, D., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. 24/04/2023 “One to many seismogenic sources: from single earthquakes to seismic sequences” (EGU Annual Meeting, Vienna, Austria, 2023)
  13. Zaccagnino*, D. & Doglioni, C. 24/04/2023 “Oscillating stress loading on the brittle crust and viscous lithosphere” (EGU Annual Meeting, Vienna, Austria, 2023)
  14. Zaccagnino*, D., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. 20/04/2023 “Why do we need new models of earthquake occurrence?” (SSA Annual Meeting, San Jaun, Puerto Rico, 2023)
  15. Zaccagnino*, D., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. 09/02/2023 “On the relationship between seismogenic sources and statistical features of seismicity” (GNGTS Meeting, Bologna, 2023)
  16. Zaccagnino*, D., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. 08/02/2023 “Stress pertubations, seismicity and fault stability: an overall view” (GNGTS Meeting, Bologna, 2023)
  17. Zaccagnino*, D., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. 12/12/2022 “Connecting Local Features of Coseismic Rupture to Large-scale Properties of Seismicity” (AGU Fall Meeting, Chicago, 2022)
  18. Zaccagnino*, D., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. 21/9/2022 “How details of faulting affect large scale properties of seismicity and tectonics” (SGI Congress, Torino, 2022)
  19. Zaccagnino*, D. & Doglioni, C. 28/6/2022 “Tectonic style vs double-couple” (GNGTS Conference, Trieste, 2022)
  20. Zaccagnino*, D., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. 26/5/2022 “Assessing crustal stability via fault stress perturbation analysis” (EGU Assembly, Vienna, 2022)
  21. Zaccagnino*, D. 15/7/2019 “Nuove prospettive di ricerca su origini e dinamiche dei fenomeni sismici” (SSAS Simposium Conference, 2019)

Posters:

  1. Zaccagnino*, D., Carafa, M.M.C., Doglioni, C. “Modeling long-term in GNSS time series: a comparison study with exponential, power law and stretched exponential” (New Orleans, AGU Fall Meeting, 2025)
  2. Zaccagnino*, D. 15/12/2025 “Rethinking maximum magnitudes: the physics of supercritical ruptures in fault systems” (New Orleans, AGU Fall Meeting, 2025)
  3. Zaccagnino*, D., Li, J., Sornette, D. 18/12/2025 “Unobserved seismicity may sustain earthquake cascades below detection thresholds” (New Orleans, AGU Fall Meeting 2025)
  4. Zaccagnino*, D., Li, J., Sornette, D. 14/02/2025 “The UV-divergence problem in statistical seismology: insights from an ETAS model with smoothed minimum triggering magnitude” (GNGTS Meeting, Bologna, Italy, 2025).
  5. Zaccagnino*, D., Carafa, MMC, Doglioni, C. 12/02/2025 “A proposal for the physical modeling of ghost geodetic transients” (GNGTS Meeting, Bologna, Italy, 2025).
  6. Zaccagnino*, D., Doglioni, C. 12/12/2024 “Universal physical mechanisms behind the differences between fault structure-related variability of seismicity”. (Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, Washington DC, 2024).
  7. Zaccagnino*, D., Bruno, O., Doglioni, C. 12/12/2024 “An attempt for the multiscale modelling of rheological parameters from the laboratory to fault systems”. (Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, Washington DC, 2024).
  8. Zaccagnino*, D., Doglioni, C. 11/12/2024 “Updates on a possible statistical approach to the identification of preparatory phases of earthquakes”. (Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, Washington DC, 2024).
  9. Zaccagnino*, D., Doglioni, C. 10//12/2024 “Can spatial stress gradients explain optimal dip angles of active faults?”. (Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, Washington DC, 2024).
  10. Zaccagnino*, D., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. 24/09/2024 “Clustering and recurrence intervals of earthquakes: selected cases and analyses” (XXXIX ESC, Corfu, Greece, 2024)
  11. Zaccagnino*, D., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. 15/02/2024 “The role of long-range correlations and memory in earthquake occurrence” (GNGTS, Ferrara, Italy, 2024)
  12. Zaccagnino*, D., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. 14/02/2024 “Possible applications of self-similarity in earthquake clustering to seismic hazard” (GNGTS, Ferrara, Italy, 2024)
  13. Zaccagnino*, D., Vallianatos, F., Michas, G., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. 12/12/2023 Can foreshocks be discriminated from seismic swarms?” (Annual Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, California, USA, 2023)
  14. Zaccagnino*, D., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. 13/12/2023 “Feedback processes and fault memory as rulers of seismicity” (Annual Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, California, USA, 2023)
  15. Zaccagnino*, D. & Doglioni, C. 18/10/2023 “Fault structure-related variability of seismic activity: a result of local geology or universal physical mechanisms?” (Annual Meeting of the Geological Society of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA, 2023)
  16. Zaccagnino*, D. & Doglioni, C. 17/10/2023 “A simpler explanation for fault dip angles distribution?” (Annual Meeting of the Geological Society of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA, 2023)
  17. Zaccagnino*, D. , Herrero, A.; Stabile, T.A.; Tan, O.; Telesca, L.; Akinci, A. & Doglioni, C. 12/10/2023 “Super-shear cascading rupture envelopes” (Physics-Based Ground Motion Modeling, Seismological Society of America, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, 2023)
  18. Zaccagnino*, D. , Stabile, T.A.; Tan, O.; Telesca, L.; Akinci, A. & Doglioni, C. 19/04/2023 “Preliminary Analysis and Model of the Complex Rupture Dynamics Behind the Mw 7.8 and Mw 7.5 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes in Türkiye” (SSA Annual Meeting, San Jaun, Puerto Rico, 2023)
  19. Zaccagnino*, D. & Doglioni, C. 18/04/2023 “Not so planar faults: on the impact of faulting complexity and type on earthquake rupture dynamics” (SSA Annual Meeting, San Jaun, Puerto Rico, 2023)
  20. Zaccagnino*, D., & Doglioni, C. 14/12/2022 “Evidence of Westerly Polarized Plate Tectonics” (AGU Fall Meeting, Chicago, 2022)
  21. Zaccagnino*, D., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. 19/9/2022 “Seismic response to tidal stress perturbations sheds new light on how fault patches become unstable” (SGI Congress, Torino, 2022)

Co-authored presentations and posters:

  1. Di Naccio, D., Carafa, M.M.C., Zaccagnino*, D. 15/12/2025 “Challenging our degree of belief in paleoseismic magnitudes” (New Orleans, AGU Fall Meeting, 2025)
  2. Calderoni*, G., Zaccagnino, D. “A joint spatio-temporal investigation of stress drops and b-value of major seismicity in Italy” (IASPEI-IAGA Meeting, Lisbon, Portugal, 2/9/2025)
  3. Barani, S., Taroni, M., Zaccagnino*, D., Artale Harris, P., Petrillo, G. “A Physics-Informed Stochastic Model for Long-Term Correlation of Earthquakes”. (GNGTS Meeting, Bologna, Italy, 2025).
  4. Venegas-Aravena, P., Zaccagnino*, D. “Magnitude-dependent chaos in earthquakes” (GNGTS Meeting, Bologna, Italy, 2025).
  5. Barani, S., Taroni*, M., Zaccagnino, D., Artale Harris, P., Petrillo, G. “A Physics-Informed Stochastic Model for Long-Term Correlation of Earthquakes”. (Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, Washington DC, 2024, 12/12/2024).
  6. Zaccagnino, D., Doglioni*, C., “Why plate and microplate tectonics?” (25/10/2024, Qingdao, China)
  7. Sardeli*, E., Zaccagnino, D., Michas, G., Spingos, I., Pavlou, K., Karakonstantis, A., Vallianatos, F., “Statistical properties of the clusters of the Thiva 2020-2022 seismic swarm” (Castrovillari, Italy, 2024)
  8. Vespe*, F., , Dousa, J., Doglioni, C., Ficini, E., Masci, O., Nico, G., Nosek, J., Vaclavovic, P., Sottili, G., Zaccagnino, D., Mendes, L., Amarillo-Fernandez, F., 27/08/2024, “GNSS data processed in PPP mode for the Estimation of the Local Solid Earth Tides: Improvements in Geophysical Investigations” (G-ETS, 20th International Symposium on Geodynamics and Earth Tides, Strasbourg, France, 2024)
  9. Vespe*, F., Dousa, J., Doglioni, C., Ficini, E., Masci, O., Nico, G., Nosek, J., Vaclavovic, P., Sottili, G., Zaccagnino, D., Mendes, L., Amarillo-Fernandez, F., 18/04/2024 “Local Solid Earth Tides and Their potential use in assessing and forecasting the risk of seismic hazards” (EGU Annual Meeting, Vienna, Austria, 2024)
  10. Nesi, V.; Bruno, O; Zaccagnino*, D., Mascia, C & Doglioni, C. 18/10/2023 “Modeling of the westward drift of the lithosphere” (Annual Meeting of the Geological Society of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA, 2023)
  11. Vespe*, F., Dousa, J., Václavovic, P., Nosek, J., Nico, G., Doglioni, C., Zaccagnino, D., … & Amarillo-Fernandez, F 14/07/2023 “Do Solid Earth Tides have a local behaviour? First results from the analysis of 20-year GNSS timeseries” (XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)) GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Berlin, Germany.
  12. Albano, M., Zaccagnino, D., & Doglioni*, C. 12/07/2023 “Tectonic constraints as the origin of heterogeneity in seismic style: new analyses and simulations” (XXI INQUA Congress, Rome, Italy, 2023)
  13. Vespe*, F., Zaccagnino, D., & Doglioni, C. 6/9/2019 “Do Lunisolar body tides speed up plates?” (7th International Colloquium on Scientific and Fundamental Aspects of GNSS, Zurich, 2019)

Last update: 29/4/2026

Legend: * = presenting author