BREAKING NEWS!
New preprints of my latest research are available!
- A Physics-Informed Stochastic Model for Long-Term Correlation of Earthquakes: https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-4820676/v1
- B-Value Spatial Variability Controlled by Fractal Properties of Faulting in Crustal Volumes: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5109305
3. Spatial scale dependence of fault physical parameters and its implications for the analysis of earthquake dynamics from the lab to fault systems: https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-4616332/v2
4. Large earthquakes are more predictable than smaller ones: https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/8451/
UPDATES
Join our session at EGU Annual Meeting in Vienna!
EGU Annual Meeting 2025 Vienna, Austria (SM8.2)
Physics-driven stochastic models for earthquake forecasting – from swarms and aftershocks to natural and induced
extreme events by Giuseppe Petrillo, Eleftheria Papadimitriou, Ilaria Spassiani, Matteo Taroni & Davide Zaccagnino
The introduction of epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models has been a milestone in statistical seismology.
Since then, several updated versions have been introduced to include more and more refined spatial and temporal
effects; however, while they succeed in forecasting the occurrence of small to moderate magnitude events, the
mainshocks are beyond their scope; moreover, mid- and long-term forecasts are poorly informative. Agreement is
growing in the scientific community that statistics and seismic-based information are not enough, and physics-based
techniques supported by an interdisciplinary approach to seismic hazard are required for achieving skilful forecasts.
This session is devoted to new research in the field of physics-based stochastic modeling of natural and induced
earthquakes also with the support of integrated, multidisciplinary methods, with special attention to major events.
NEXT ACTIVITIES